SPANISH
POLITICS: The electorate here is said to have abandoned its
fatalistic/feudalistic attitude to corruption and to have recently
punished both of the leading parties because of their fondness for it.
Strange, then, that the Presidenta of Spain's most corrupt region –
Andalucia – is looking to oust the PSOE President in her own
favour. It surely makes sense to her; but to the rest of us? I mean,
previous Andalucian presidents and current members of her
administration are being investigated in respect of a €2-3bn (yes,
billion) diversion of EU funds. You'd have thought there was at least
a possibility that she'd be a persona non grata to the public.
Perhaps she is but can't see it. Time will tell, as ever.
THE EU: To
counter recent posts on the imminent death of this monster, there are
2 articles at the end of this blog on why it must survive and why the
UK should not leave it. If you're interested, make up your own mind.
If not, skip 'em.
ENGLISH
PINGLISH: Whatever this is, it's being used to help young kids learn
the world's lingua franca. So it must be good. A series of books in
both English and Spanish can be bought on a couple of deuvedés.
GALICIAN
NATIONALISM: I'm not clear what happened as regards support for this
in the recent general elections. The old Galician Nationalist Block
(the BNG) had been superseded (I think) by a party called Nos ('Us'
in Gallego) and this did very badly indeed. But another new party of
the left – En Marea – did rather better and this may well contain
nationalist elements. Perhaps a reader could enlighten me. Meanwhile, a spokesperson has said “We have to re-invent nationalism so that
it appeals to young people”. Well, good luck with that, mate. The
times are rather against you. This ain't The Basque Country. Or even
Cataluña. Most people recognise that Galicia would be in a worse state
but for Spanish money.
CELTS:
Galicians – especially the nationalists – like to see themselves
as Celts. And not merely any old Celts but those who settled Ireland.
The latest genetic research in the latter suggests that their Celts
came from the Middle East (Greek: Keltoi?) But many believe the term
is meaningless, having been invented only in the 12th
century, and that it's a cultural, not an ethnic, label. But none of
this will stop many Galicians believing they're Celtic and,
therefore, different from every other group in Spain. Especially from those with 15% North African genes. Being
distinct from every other region's populace is important in Spain.
The EU
empire’s a mess but we must stick by it
Despite
its inherent lack of democracy and its structural weaknesses, this
enormous ship cannot be allowed to capsize
Edward Lucas: The Times
Imperial
Europe is taking shape before our eyes. The process is messy and
costly. It prizes effectiveness over democracy and national
sovereignty. It may end in catastrophe. But our best bet is its
success.
The most
long-standing bulwark of the empire is the competition directorate —
a formidable bureaucratic weapon with prosecutorial powers, charged
with maintaining the integrity of the single market. Without it,
monopolies and government subsidies would disadvantage consumers.
The fines
it can levy have humbled the world’s most powerful companies,
including Microsoft, Gazprom and Google. Its scalps also include the
European Union’s most important member states.
Close
behind it is the energy directorate, which has destroyed Russia’s
abusive and discriminatory gas export business, to the dismay of
Kremlin cronies, especially in Germany, and to the huge benefit of
those once in its grip. The EU’s single market is now bigger than
the EU itself — it includes Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. As a
country — call it Singlemarketland — it would be the biggest,
richest and most powerful economic entity in the world. On trade
policy, it can do deals with behemoths like China and America with a
clout that no individual member could match.
Next up is
the eurozone. Constructed on the basis of wishful thinking, it is now
turning into a country — Euroland — with an interventionist
central bank, a bailout fund, enforceable fiscal rules (just ask the
Greeks) and common banking supervision. None of these institutions
were envisaged at the beginning (and had they been, voters might well
have vetoed the whole idea).
It could
still blow up, but it is now possible to see how the common currency
can work. For the foreseeable future, Germany and other exporters in
northern Europe will benefit from an artificially low exchange rate.
In return, they pay up while the south Europeans try to reform their
economies to regain competitiveness. It is the same deal we have in
Britain, where the southeast pays for, and runs, the rest of the
country.
But the
difficulties of making Euroland work are dwarfed by the latest
project: turning the Schengen passport-free travel zone into
Schengenland. This incipient superstate is bigger, with 26 countries,
against only 19 in Euroland. Hassle-free travel is one of the
breakthrough benefits of the past 20 years, something that ordinary
Europeans truly value. It is now under threat because of terrorism
and fears about uncontrolled migration: once across the Schengen
border, you can travel freely, in theory, from the southern tip of
Italy to the north of Norway, in search of a better life or aiming to
end other people’s.
The
Schengen zone was not designed to deal with this. This is why
Schengenland just got its own army, the new EU border force, which
can be deployed to protect the external Schengenland frontier, even
if a member country does not wish it
Moreover,
history suggests that empires that do not stabilise their periphery
are themselves destabilised by it. Accordingly, Schengenland aims not
just to secure its border but to manage what happens beyond it.
Schengenland is developing its own foreign policy — doing deals
with Turkey with a realpolitische vim that would make Bismarck blush:
you keep the migrants out, we give your citizens visa-free travel to
the EU. Expect more of that in 2016.
Schengenland
is also getting its own police force: in effect a European FBI.
Countries with effective criminal-justice systems, such as the
Netherlands, France and Germany, are not going to put up with the
lapses of ineffective ones (notably Belgium). The imperial police
force involves data-sharing, hot pursuit across national frontiers,
speedier extradition and close collaboration between prosecutors.
Problems
abound. Schengenland wants to share out migrants so that the generous
countries (chiefly Germany and Sweden) do not bear disproportionate
short-term costs. But countries such as Poland, with fragile public
services and sceptical populations, have scant appetite for taking
large numbers of migrants from the Middle East (they have already
done their bit by taking hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, they
note). Schengenland will have to sort that out, trading access to EU
structural funds (boondoggle projects for roads, railways and the
like) in exchange for help on migration.
One
question is how these proto-empires fit together. What say do the
minority “outs” have in decision-making by the “ins”? How to
stay in the EU but outside Schengen and the euro is the real dilemma
facing David Cameron, not the politics of his phoney referendum.
A bigger
problem is democracy. National preferences shape imperial Europe, but
they do not govern it. If you want a single market in goods, people
and capital, you need to stop national governments favouring their
own voters and breaking the rules with protectionism. If you want a
common currency, then the citizens of Greece cannot vote themselves a
slice of German taxpayers’ money. If you want a passport-free
travel zone, then you need effective policing inside it and strong
projection of power on its periphery. Those considerations trump
democracy.
Admittedly,
the EU is democratic in that the European parliament scrutinises the
commission, which is appointed by haggling among national
governments. But this is obscure and distant compared with national
general elections. The advantages of the single market, common
currency and passport-free travel are not perks for the elite: they
benefit the humblest, too. Millions already commute across the
Schengenland internal borders. Europeans will not lightly abandon
their accustomed convenience. But it will require a big shift for the
public to accept that they are part of imperial Europe and to
forswear the national sovereignty they have grown up with.
The
biggest weakness is that building imperial institutions belatedly in
response to crises is so costly and risky — rather like refitting a
ship once it is already on the high seas. The architects of these
great schemes have been strangely quiet about the shortcomings of
their original plans. The costs and constraints are far higher than
originally advertised. Voters — be they the British toying with
Brexit, exasperated Portuguese and Greeks installing fragile
left-wing governments, or the French turning to Marine Le Pen’s
National Front — can stall, or even capsize, imperial Europe. The
consequences of such a shipwreck would make today’s problems seem
trivial.
Leaving
the EU would be a disaster for Britain. Business needs to speak up.
Sir Victor
Blank - a former chairman of Lloyds Banking Group and Trinity Mirror
There is a great danger
in the argument being subsumed by pure emotion, with the Brexit camp
playing the “historically proud, independent nation” card. This
would be a repeat of the Scottish Referendum battle, where the
Nationalists tugged at heartstrings – a blatant stirring of passion
that the Union side struggled to counter. In the end, cold reason
prevailed. The business community, cautious at first and reluctant to
be drawn into the political arena, made its voice heard, presenting a
compelling case against Scotland going it alone.
This time business must
not wait – the EU decision is too economically significant to leave
until the last minute. Put simply, it would be a disaster if the UK
quit. Avoiding that should not, and cannot, be left to chance.
Business must speak out
because business matters. Politicians may declare their views, so too
might the press and other commentators. But it’s business, whether
large companies or small to medium enterprises (SMEs), that creates
the jobs and generates the wealth upon which this nation so depends.
There are currently around 5 million private enterprises in the UK,
employing, at 25.6 million people, roughly half the population.
Public service, by contrast, employs 5.4 million.
That is why business
must not stay silent or be ignored. Industry leaders speak for a far
bigger constituency than any politician, journalist or commentator.
It is all the more important to speak up, as this referendum’s
result will be final – we will not be able to reverse it, or hold
another a few years hence. This is one shot, an opportunity to settle
an issue that has dogged Britain for decades.
What, precisely, is the
message business chiefs must convey? They must assess the
contribution that their company can make to our economic well-being
and wealth. That means assessing the prospects for jobs and benefits.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the UK ranks fifth
among world economies (behind the US, China, Japan and Germany).
Withdrawing from the EU would threaten that hard-won economic power.
I am not saying it will be weakened, but it could well be. Why take
the risk?
As a member of the EU,
our companies are able to sell, without barriers and tariffs, to a
market on the UK’s doorstep of 500 million people. They need only
abide by one set of regulations covering the entire, vast and complex
region. Our biggest trading partner is the EU. As a non-member these
same companies could be obliged to negotiate with each individual
country they sell to within the EU. One set of rules would be
replaced by a possible 27, not to mention payment of duties.
The ability of
manufacturing companies to sell their wares could be damaged.
Manufacturing accounts for 54 per cent of UK exports and directly
employs 2.6 million people. Another crucial area, financial services,
may also be blighted. This is a sector that contributes £127 billion
to the UK economy. Around half of that total derives from the City of
London. Financial services accounts for 3.4 per cent of UK jobs. Some
banks have indicated already they would be required to consider
relocating to a centre in the EU and downgrading London. Again, why
endanger the City’s world-leading position?
Indeed, would the USA
treat the UK in the way it does today if we say no to the EU? Would
the Japanese and the Far East continue to invest billions here, if we
are no longer inside the market of 500 million people?
Not only does the EU
buy our exports, its companies invest here and create jobs. According
to the latest available figures, 46 per cent of all foreign
investment in Britain hails from EU countries. We’re the Number 1
destination for foreign direct investment in the EU.
"While Britain’s
is the fifth biggest national economy on earth there is one that
towers over all of them. It’s the collection of national economies
that is the EU itself"
Overseas money pouring
into Britain is a lifeline for our economy. On our own, we’re
nowhere near big enough to build the factories and offices that are
funded by foreign cash. Some of that inward investment comes from the
EU itself, supplying funding to the regions of greatest need. Over
the next six years, Cornwall, Wales, Scottish Highlands, Northern
Ireland and Northern England can look forward to receiving £8
billion in EU aid. That would vanish if we voted to depart.
EU funding also goes to
universities to help them research future technologies. Britain is
earmarked to collect £7 billion from the EU’s Horizon 2020 fund –
investment that would also cease. Our SMEs actually receive more
funding from the EU for hi-tech research than those of any other EU
member. That lucrative tap would be turned off if we went alone.
While Britain’s is
the fifth biggest national economy on earth there is one that towers
over all of them. It’s the collection of national economies that is
the EU itself. That firepower enables the negotiation of valuable
free trade deals for its members. The EU has entered into agreements
with the US, China, India, South Korea, South Africa and Mexico.
Britain on its own would not have the clout to drive a similar
bargain; British companies would
suffer.
The EU continues to
push for new agreements. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment
Partnership (TTIP) talks between the US and EU are on going. TTIP
alone could be worth as much as £10 billion a year to the UK
economy. Similarly, a proposed EU-Japan tie-up could be worth £13
billion to the UK.
If we left, we would
still have to face the same issues that we must contend with today –
except we could no longer turn to the EU for support. Immigration
would still continue to haunt us. But suddenly we might find the
French less willing to cooperate, and simply waving immigrants on
their way towards Britain instead.
Of course, some aspects
of Brussels drive us mad. Hopefully these can be reformed by the
Prime Minister in his talks with EU premiers. But we should not lose
sight of the bigger picture. Britain has prospered hugely since
joining the EU. Compared with the uncertainty of leaving, this fact
alone is compelling enough reason for staying. Business leaders must
get on the front foot, assess the benefits of membership and
communicate them firmly. To do so is to fight for Britain’s
economic future.