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Tuesday, March 06, 2012

A moribund meteor flashed across the skies of Britain the other night and scientists are trying to find where it landed and breathed its last. Tellingly, they've found it necessary to remind everyone that meteors are not that hot when they finally land and so opportunists should not plan insurance claims based on it having set fire to their roof.

I've talked of the theft of lead and copper from church roofs in the UK. In Dublin last week, some enterprising soul stole the heart of a saint from its casket. Inexplicably, the thief left behind the cathedral's valuable gold items. Perhaps his heart wasn't in it. Prospects for recovery are not good; the cathedral is still looking for some holy bones that went walkabout during the Reformation.

I said the other day that Spain still has some way to go in the area of racism. Which isn't something you could say about the UK. At least, not on the basis of what happened there last week - A few members of a trade union decided to criticise the governing committee by producing a leaflet citing the three wise monkeys. They were then prosecuted for racism, on the grounds that one of the fifteen-strong committee was black. After an expenditure of 200,000 pounds on the court case, the judge threw out the racism charge. I wonder how long it will be before this type of nonsense happens in Spain. Hopefully an eternity.

Spain's president, Señor Rajoy, may be an unlikely hero right now but this article asks whether he has the muscle for a tussle with Brussels.

If you've read that article, you'll know that Rajoy has another battle on his hands - getting the regional governments to cut their spending. Ironically, while Brussels eurocrats are telling him he can't soften the national targets, he's saying the same thing to the regional governments. Chances are they'll ignore him as much as he's ignoring Brussels. Anyway, here's IberoSphere's take on Señor Rajoy. Who is, of course, from Galicia, where they're famous for their stubbornness.

Spain isn't the only country facing retribution from Brussels. Surprisingly, Holland faces the risk of fines for failing to his its targets. Separately, the Dutch Freedom Party has called for a return to the Guilder - the first time this has been done by a party with some political clout.

Finally on Europe, it now seems to be accepted in Germany (which is all that counts) that, if things don't go to plan and Greece needs more cash, she'll be left to default and to leave the eurozone. In other words, there won't be a third rescue if the second dollop of euros proves insufficient. Maybe that's the Greek gameplan. Give everyone enough time to think about and plan for an orderly exit and a return to the drachma. Especially as -"With sky-high debts, a five year recession stretching into at least another two and loan interest to pay, there is no way Athens can meet Brussels' demands." More here.

Finally . . . It's occurred to me that there is a case for either Guardiola or Mourinho taking the Chelsea job, albeit a greedy and cynical one. Both of these men are big enough to survive losing the job within, say, a year. So . . . 1. Negotiate yourself a multi-million annual salary for a term of four years. 2. Include in your contract a very generous severance package. 3. Start the job and wait to be fired. 4. Pocket all the cash and move on to another club. All that said, I still don't see either of them taking the job.

Monday, March 05, 2012

The leader of the Catholic Church in Scotland has said a number of outrageous things about the UK government's plans to legalise gay marriage. This, according to the Cardinal, is "against the natural law". What, and celibacy isn't?

Now that the manager of Chelsea football club has finally been fired, speculation is rife as to who'll replace him. Odds have naturally been attached to each of the possible candidates, who include Pep Guardiola of Barcelona and José Mourinho of Real Madrid. I can't for the life of me understand why either of these would want to take hold of this particular poisoned chalice, even if Mourinho and his wife have been inspecting properties in parts of London where the prices are at least eye-watering. But we'll see. Perhaps one of them will go for the lucre.

Juan José Padilla is a Spanish bullfighter who lost an eye when he was gored through the jaw last October. Despite the lack of binocular vision, he's gone back into the ring and performed well enough to earn the traditional accolade of an ear from each of his taurine opponents. Whatever your stance on bullfighting, you'd have to concede this is one brave man. Or do I mean stupid? Possibly both.

Another Spaniard being admired for courage this week is the President Mariano Rajoy. To say the least, this is an unusual situation for a man universally suspected of not being able to take a decision. Presumably seeing his deficit defiance as the thin end of an EU-wide wedge, various Brussels bigwigs have said that the "serious, grave" 2011 overshoot needs explaining and that raising the 2012 target from 4.4% of GDP to ("a more realistic") 5.8% could mean penalties. Rajoy's "bombshell" has excited Ambrose Evans-Pritchard so much that he's pronounced:- In the twenty years or so that I have been following EU affairs closely, I cannot remember such a bold and open act of defiance by any state. Usually such matters are fudged. Countries stretch the line, but do not actually cross it. With condign symbolism, Mr Rajoy dropped his bombshell in Brussels after the EU summit, without first notifying the commission or fellow EU leaders. Indeed, he seemed to relish the fact that he was tearing up the rule book and disavowing the whole EU machinery of budgetary control. He is surely right to seize the initiative. Spain’s economy will contract by 1.7pc this year under his modified plans and unemployment will reach 24pc (or 29pc under the 1990s method of counting). To compound this with manic fiscal tightening – and no offsetting devaluation – is intellectually indefensible. There comes a point when a democracy can no longer sacrifice its citizens to please reactionary ideologues determined to impose 1930s scorched-earth policies. As for the "Fiscal Compact", it is rendered a dead letter by Spanish actions. If the text were enforced, the consequences would be ruinous. It enshrines Hooverism in EU law, and imposes contractionary policies without the consent of future parliaments. But it won’t be enforced in any meaningful sense because the political realities of the EU are already intruding, and will intrude further. A president François Hollande of France will rip it up. The Latin Bloc is awakening.

So, is the Fiscal Compact already a dead letter, less than a week after it was signed? And after months of negotiation behind the scenes? I guess we'll soon know.

Finally . . . We've all been assaulted by numerous acronyms and predictions over the last few months. So perhaps it's time to remind ourselves of a few mot justes from J. K. Glabraith:- "The only purpose economic forecasts have is that they make astrology respectable". Which makes it all the more ridiculous that the EU and Spain should go to war over this year's uncertain deficit. But wars have started for lesser causes, I guess.

Sunday, March 04, 2012

Lorna Byrne is an Irish woman who's written three books about angels. She sees them constantly, she says - usually in the form of guardian angels watching beneficently over the people she's looking at. In a roomful of people, she also sees a roomful of (mute but beautiful) guardian angels. I heard her talk about this on a BBC discussion program this morning and, having just finished Richard Dawkins The God Delusion, I had fun imagining the state of apoplexy he'd be in if he heard her. I'm sure he'd agree with the comment of one person that, if it wasn't for the religious backcloth, Ms Byrne would long ago have been consigned to a mental home. Dr Dawkins chafes at the degree of irrationality one is allowed to get away with in the name of religion.

Oops . . . "Greek default looms as the voluntary debt deal looks set to fail. European leaders are braced for the eurozone’s first ever sovereign default this week as Greece’s efforts to secure a €206bn 'voluntary' bond swap look increasingly unlikely to succeed." This is the probability that the Greeks will fail to get all their creditors to accept 70% losses, leading to, first, activation of CACs (don't ask me) and then a 'credit event' (ditto). Apparently, we will then be in "unknown territory" (don't ask anyone - it's unknown). So, it could be an interesting week. In which Spain's refusal to play ball around its 2012 deficit will rank very low on the Merkel worry scale.

Talking of Spain, the new Foreign Minister has demanded bilateral talks with the UK about Gibraltar. Britain's prime minister has said talks must involve Gibraltar, as with the previous administration. As I never tire of saying, the British government has been keen to get shut of the place for decades but this will never happen if Spain is aggressive enough to stimulate patriotic claptrap from the UK's tabloids. You'd think they'd learn. OK, it made sense to sound muscular before the general election but it's pointless now.

Finally . . . I mentioned Google yesterday. Here's an article on the growing power which the company wields. It contains the unexpected sentence - "The greatest challenge to Google, as it was to Microsoft and its monopolistic practices, might well end up being the unloved EU."

Saturday, March 03, 2012

I was amused to hear today - in the context of the stricken cruise ship - that the island of Mahé in the Seychelles is "exclusive". It certainly wasn't when I was teaching there in 1966. "Dirt-poor" would be a more accurate description for way back then. On the other hand, since there were no boats or planes calling there, I guess it was exclusive to the extent that no one could get either off or on it.

And so it goes on . . .The ex-Chairman of Real Madrid, Ramón Calderón, has been "indicted for fraud and for falsifying the club's accounts. Calderón and several of his collaborators are accused of disloyal administration, falsifying of accounts and obtaining agreements by fraud and fictitious means." One begins to wonder what percentage of directors in Spain can keep their hands out of the corporate till.

Facing elections, Mr Sarkozy has been lyrical in praising the Fiscal Pact and in announcing an end to the eurozone's crisis. But he's been blasted out of the briny by Big Bertha, who's reminded everyone that they've merely bought time with the help of an ECB fix and that the EU remains in a "fragile state". For good measure, she added that "The crisis is far from over. We now have the time to improve competitiveness, growth and the employment situation . . . We absolutely have to use this time. Otherwise, we will find that the world does not trust us.”

But, as one observer put it:- "Even euro-friendly commentators agree that the Treaty is unlikely to do much for the eurozone. It's widely seen as a fig leaf for German public opinion. It's not widely liked by other, weaker, members of the Eurozone and it's difficult to see how it delivers the desired goal of lower budget deficits, more cuts and higher taxes all at the same time." Time will tell, I guess. Though it shouldn't go unnoticed that "A raft of economists has warned that the targets will plunge the eurozone into deeper recession.·

Meanwhile, the Spanish government - having unilaterally lowered its 2012 deficit target - is "on a collision course with other eurozone leaders. And this clash hints at the challenges which lay ahead for the eurozone and how tough it may be to balance domestic political will with the drive for austerity in the eurozone."

Of course, things will really get complicated if France's Socialist presidential candidate, Francois Hollande, beats Mr Sarkozy and then tries to deliver on his pledge to renegotiate the pact.

Finally . . . Did you know (or care) that Google takes all the clicks you make, subjects them to their algorithms and then responds to your searches with results that are tailored to you? Another thought - If you're getting a free service on the internet, you can assume that you (and your predilections) are the commodity that's being sold.

Friday, March 02, 2012

So, is it a Fiscal Pact or Fiscal Treaty and does anyone give a toss? The question arises from a recollection - possibly wrong - that the UK's refusal to sign it meant it couldn't be a treaty and would have to be a pact, outside the EU framework. The Economist today calls it a fiscal compact. So I'll go with that. Ignoring the fact that they later refer to it as a treaty. The only important thing to know is that total ratification is not necessary - 12 of the 17 will do - meaning that the Irish insistence on a bit of democracy is irrelevant to the issue. Though possibly damaging to the perception of Ireland among those who count.

Spain's President - the Pontevedran Mariano Rajoy - has come out of the long grass with his deficit number for 2012. Defying Brussels, he's plumped for 5.8% of GDP, against the Nomenklatura's target of 4.4%. Noises are being made about fining Spain - and Holland - for this crime of demonstrating realism. Or almost, as experts don't see there being much of a chance of 5.8% being achieved. Meanwhile, Rajoy's pugnacious comments about Spanish sovereignty have been attacked by Mrs Merkel, who's said it makes no sense to be flexible on the deficit. And she stressed that Eurozone members have to comply with the Fiscal Pact/Compact/Treaty, signed today. But at least everyone agrees with the 2013 number of 3%. Which will be announced at the end of that year by flying pigs trailing an appropriate banner.

Sad to say, unemployment in Spain rose yet again in February. There are now 4.7m unemployed and there's talk of 6m by the year end. Surely not.

The piece about Mr Putin dealing with the CIA attempts to flood Russia with drugs was sent to me by two people - 'James Tyler' and someone I don't recall and can't be bothered to check. One was headed anglo pigs and the other anglo parasites of the world. Which is very insulting as anglo surely merits a capital letter.

Talking about megalomaniacs . . . Pope Boniface VIII (1235-1303) was the sworn enemy of Dante, who placed him in the Eighth Circle of Hell, with the Simonists. According to an expert I listened to today, Boniface was not only homosexual but almost certainly an atheist. Which makes him an odd choice for Pope, I feel. But more the atheism than the homosexuality. Which may be rather more tolerated amongst the Catholic clergy than among their parishioners. Perhaps it's even a prerequisite.

Being from the North, I pronounce past and glass, for example, with what I call a 'short a'. As opposed to the paast and glaas of the South. Utterly inconsistently, though, I say haalf past and caan't. In fact, I think most Brits do, unlike the Americans, who do pronounce can't with a 'short a'. This is probably of no interest to anyone but I was musing on it today, while eating my beef sandwich (short a) from Mr Sandwich (ditto).

Finally . . . I've just seen it's a Treaty for Stability, Coordination and Governance. I wonder what that is in German.


Finally, finally . . . Today being Friday, Alfie plunges into aioli.

Thursday, March 01, 2012

Odd things tend to get attributed to a recession; a reduction in the number of abortions in Galicia and an increase in Church of England marriages in the UK. In the latter case, the cause is said to be "A return to family values and a desire for stability". Which may or may not be true.

One thing that does rise in a recession - in the UK at least - is the theft of lead and copper from church roofs. In one such instance, the thief was copped and taken to court. He appeared wearing a brace, claiming he'd fallen off the roof in the pursuit and broken his back. He was let off with a very light sentence but later proceeded to score three goals in a Sunday football match. When this was brought to the attention of the judge, he duly gaoled him.

It now looks like the vast gambling complex I mentioned a few weeks ago will be built in Spain, despite resistance from some parliamentarians. With Spain's unemployment continuing to rise - and forecast to do so throughout 2012 - a promised 260,000 jobs are not to be sniffed at. Madrid and Barcelona are engaged in a titanic struggle to house the venture, with the shorter odds being on Madrid. But I'm sure it's a clean fight.

The Liverpool goalkeeper, Pepe Reina, has been accused of racism for appearing in an ad for a Spanish insurance company said to depict "racial and sexual stereotypes" and to portray Africans as "backward, stupid, and animalistic homosexuals". Said one angry commentator:- "It's back in the fifties, this kind of stuff." Well, yes. That tends to be the way of things in Spain, where there's some catching up to do in this area. The insurance company responded:- "We are going to withdraw it immediately but have done nothing wrong. But if you're upset then we apologise'. Also par for the course. And they haven't pulled the ad.

A confession - I've now bought a one-quid sandwich from Mr Sandwich. Twice in fact. The first one was Cajun chicken and the second Chicken Tikka. The difference? Marginal, to say the least. As I write this, I realise it's quite a while since I last saw the sorry-looking youth advertising the place on - what else? - sandwich boards. A victim of cost-cutting, I fear.

Finally . . . Recent events in Afghanistan have pointed up the difficulties one would have in safely disposing of a copy of the Qur'an. Should you be faced with this challenge, here's one ingenious suggestion - Leave it in a drawer in a hotel room.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

My fiend 'James Tyler' has sent me another screed - this one on how Mr Putin is going to deal with all the drugs which the CIA has been sending to Russia so as to undermine the place. If you're really interested, I guess a search using putin and drugs would work.

The Spanish President has met with the the President of the European Commission to talk about the forecast deficit for 2012 and to beg for some relaxation in the Brussels-imposed figure of 4.4% of GDP. But he had no joy, despite insisting it's unachievable. Brussels wants details of both last year's failure to hit the 6% target and also of Spain's budget for 2012. Presumably the technocrats want to know where they can demand more austerity.

In Ireland, in a move which has sent shock waves through the EU, the people are going to be given a say on whether their government becomes an official satrapy of Brussels or not. This means "there is a possibility of a real political blow against the disastrous and undemocratic policies that have been pursued since the crisis began. A Yes vote means the continuation of the nightmare. A No vote would be a blow in favour of all the victims of austerity and for all democrats across Europe. If Irish voters do reject the treaty, they will be performing a great service to the population of Europe. It could mark a turning point in the EU and beyond, pulling the brake on the austerity express before it hits the buffers."

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is again lending money to EU banks at 1% so they can buy sovereign bonds paying them 3%. This looks like a backdoor way of doing the 'quantitative easing' (i. e. printing of money) that the Germans don't like and won't countenance because it's inflationary. So nobody tell them, OK?

Finally . . . Did you know that Google's 'Page Ranking' gets its name from co-founder Larry Page and not from what you thought it did? Honest.