Dawn

Dawn

Friday, June 29, 2007

You may have seen reports of starving vultures in Holland and Belgium attacking domestic cattle herds. Now comes news of sightings along the Galician coast. Even more interesting than dolphins, I suspect. Unless you’re a cow, of course. This situation is said to stem from an EU law that carcases can’t be left in the hills to rot, thus depriving the birds – and the more-regularly sighted semi-urban wolves – of nourishing carrion. Who’d be surprised if this turned out to be true?

Years ago, when I advertised for a PA/Secretary in the UK, the newspaper refused to add the line that rewards would include the occasional bunch of flowers. They advised it was illegally sexist because it didn’t address itself to both females and males. I said it did as I was gay but this buttered no parsnips and I deleted the line. I think of this every time I pass a shop window here displaying a sign saying ‘Girl wanted’. This, too, is probably illegal under both Spanish and EU anti-discrimination laws. But who cares? And what would happen if you protested? Spain is different.

Once again the Spanish press has demonstrated its superiority over even the British ‘heavies’ by carrying reams of information on the outgoing Blair and the incoming Brown. It’s impossible to imagine Spanish – or even American – events being given such prominence in the UK media. Of course, I couldn’t quite bring myself to finish Mr Portillo’s eulogy to Tony Blair, though it did tend to confirm he was the best leader the Tory party never had. Mr Blair, that is. Not Mr Portillo. Whose cousin, by the way, I once met on the streets of Salamanca.

Elections Footnotes: Here in Pontevedra, the socialist and the nationalists are still arguing about the election spoils four weeks after voting took place. Or, rather, they aren’t as negotiations broke down this week, when the disgruntled socialists left the table at the refusal of their nationalist partner to accept the lessons of their reduced support. Some say it’s all linked to parallel talks taking place in Lugo. Whatever, it makes for exciting times. Honest. Meanwhile, over in the Balearic Islands, the ousted PP party is hinting that the ‘rich woman’ who heads the small block holding the reins of power chose to go with the socialists because they’re the only ones who can offer her immunity from prosecution for corruption during the last administration. Surely not. It can only be sour grapes. Especially as they were just as keen to cut a deal with her. As for Navarra, I think the situation still remains murky. But can’t be sure.

Someone finally seems to have drummed some sense into Fernando Alonso. He’s now saying there’s no civil war in the McLaren camp and that Hamilton deserves his lead. Though he couldn't resist adding that ‘His luck will change’. Must be a Scorpio. Like me.

Galicia Facts: Depending on which paper you read, ours is either the cheapest or second-cheapest region of Spain in which to rent a flat. The national average per square metre is 7.20 euros. In Madrid it’s 11.38, whereas here it’s a mere 3.39.

Finally – for those interested – here’s a longish summary on the Spanish property market from someone who seems to know what he’s talking about. True, he says that “Spain’s decade-long real estate boom is over and it is now a buyer’s market.” And true, he admits that “If housing starts continue at present levels, the chances of a price crash in the Spanish property market will increase significantly”. But, overall, he feels things have been rather exaggerated and stresses it’s a “complex situation of regional markets performing in different ways”. Sadly, he has nothing to say about Galicia. For the full report, see here . . .

The Spanish property market was incorrectly portrayed as melting down after the share price correction on the Spanish stock market. In reality, the overall market is not falling, though some regional markets are faring better than others. But the stock market jolt has helped focus people’s attention on the serious imbalances affecting Spain’s housing market.

The big risk to the market comes from over-provision, as Spanish developers build several hundred thousand more properties per year than the market needs. This oversupply is partly due to years of inappropriately low interest rates for Spain once in the EUM.

With the Spanish economy now over-dependent upon the housing sector for economic growth and employment, there is a risk that a much-needed fall in housing starts will bring about a construction-lead recession in Spain. If this happens, demand for holiday homes will be hit hard, and house prices will fall in many areas. But even in this worst-case scenario, attractive properties in desirable locations with foreign appeal should hold their value, and recover quickly as economic conditions improve.

With the Spanish economy growing at close to 4% - one of the highest rates in the developed world – and with forecast growth of 3.7% in 2007, and 3.4% in 2008, it is difficult to imagine a construction-lead recession at present. Without a recession, the Spanish housing market is more likely to stagnate over the next few years than fall.

Having said that, there are many areas up and down the Spanish coast that suffer from a serious glut of over-priced, poor quality, unattractive properties in mediocre overdeveloped locations. Property prices in some areas are starting to fall, and are likely to continue doing so.

Buyers and sellers who wish to take advantage of the situation will need to do their research, keep a close eye on the market, and study local market conditions carefully.

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