The
EU and Greece: What can one say? I'm certainly not going to repeat my
long-held views that the EU will eventually collapse under the weight
of its internal incongruities. And that it's always been a
war-inspired political vision with little weight given to either
democracy or, worse, real-world macroeconomics. So, leaving them
aside, here and here are the coruscating views of two US economists.
And, at the end of this post, there's an article from today's Times.
Enough said.
You're
not going to believe it but one of the highlights of living in an
area rampant with drug smuggling is that, from time to time, the
narcotraficos leave behind such unwanted baubles as helicopters or
hyper-fast launches. I guess it reflects the profits to be made and
it reminds me of the wine-makers in New Zealand who make so much
dosh they can afford to hire choppers to hover over their vines in
hot weather.
On
British TV yesterday, the point was made that there's a Good Islam
(the mainstream) and Bad Islam (Islamists such as ISIS). It reminded
me I'd read the Koran - for the second time - about 10 years ago - and drawn this conclusion: The Koran is both inconsistent and
ambiguous (even avowedly so at one point), so there is ample scope for
GoodMuslims to come up with a tolerant, peace-loving religion and
BadMuslims to come up with a hate-filled, violent, proselytising
religion. Nice
to find the rest of the commentariat catching up with me . . . .
Spanish:
A new (to me) idiomatic phrase: Tener mono. Literally - 'To have
monkey'. Means 'To crave'. As in Tiene mono de fama: 'He/she craves
fame'.
Finally
. . .In a lovely book about a year in the life of England's 14th
century poet, Chaucer, author Paul Strohm gives the origin of the
word 'gossip'. It derives, he says, from the phrase god-sib/god-sibling, or good
friend. I see no reason to disbelieve him
The dream of closer
union is melting away: Ed Conway. The Times.
The euro’s founders
believed it would supplant the dollar as a reserve currency and knit
Europe together. It has failed at both.
In more than a decade
of reporting on the euro, I can’t recall anything like the scene in
the press room of the European Council building on Saturday. One
journalist was in tears; another was swearing down his phone; others
just walked around in a daze. An EU official, her voice cracking with
emotion, said her devastation was on the same scale as the euphoria
she felt the day the Berlin Wall came down.
One can understand why:
June 27 is now widely regarded as the day the euro died. Certainly,
it was the moment Greece was cut loose and effectively expelled from
the eurogroup, which became the first major European forum to meet
intentionally without one of its members. This may indeed be the
beginning of the end of the euro, but if Saturday marked the rupture,
there is a case for saying the currency’s fate was set in stone
five days earlier, on Monday last week.
For whatever happens to
Greece in the coming weeks, the bigger question is what its travails
imply for the rest of the eurozone. If the single currency is no
longer irreversible, what is to stop speculators betting on a Spanish
or Italian departure the next time there is a fiscal crisis? Granted,
there was less contagion in European debt markets yesterday than some
had feared: after a brief spike, Italian and Spanish bond yields —
a barometer of sovereign debt stress — settled barely a fraction of
a percentage point higher. Some suspect that the European Central
Bank may be deploying calming countermeasures behind the scenes.
But such emergency
measures will not ensure the euro’s long-term survival. If it has a
future, it is as a fully functioning currency with a fiscal union,
shared debt and a truly common market, with money and people able to
move from country to country at will. And that is where last Monday
comes in.
Though it was barely
reported at the time, that was when Jean-Claude Juncker issued
Brussels’ blueprint for the future of the euro. The subtitle of the
five presidents’ report, as it was named (after the heads of the
commission, the parliament, the council, the ECB and the eurogroup),
was: “Completing Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union”.
In its 24 pages you’ll
find many familiar buzzphrases (the euro is “like a house that was
built over decades but only partially finished . . . It is now high
time to reinforce its foundations”) and some bold-sounding plans,
including a “euro area treasury”, a common banking deposit
insurance scheme and a European fiscal watchdog similar to Britain’s
Office for Budget Responsibility. Were you in any doubt that this is
intended as the euro’s best bulwark against a Greek departure, look
no further than the date it all comes into force: tomorrow, the day
after Greece’s bailout is due to expire.
The problem is, it’s
frankly not all that ambitious. Gone are the plans for mutualising
the continent’s debt; gone is the idea of supranational bank
deposit insurance; gone is the notion of treaty change to bring about
a genuine two-speed European Union (much to David Cameron’s
chagrin). As is often the case in Europe, the bold language is only a
façade, masking squabbling and pusillanimity beneath the surface.
Like it or not, over
the past three years (the last analogous report was written in 2012)
Europe has become markedly less committed to deeper union. For
further evidence, you need only recall the row over dinner at the
European Council last Thursday, as leaders failed to agree a plan to
resettle 40,000 asylum seekers from north Africa.
Tempting as it is to
view this as the disintegration of the European dream, it is more
likely just evidence of another phenomenon we see all over the world
— a retreat from internationalism. The EU is not the only
multilateral institution facing decay; consider the United Nations,
the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organisation, to
take just three. Yesterday, George Osborne signed the articles of
agreement setting up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,
China’s answer to the World Bank. It may well end up lending Greece
money if it slides out of the euro.
The reality is that the
euro was a dream borne out of a world that no longer exists. It was a
response to the collapse of the postwar Bretton Woods system, a
currency devised to challenge the dollar’s supremacy as the world’s
reserve currency. It was designed to constrain Berlin’s dominance
of the continent and to knit its warmongering nations closer
together. Today the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency
and, as recent years have shown, Berlin dominates Europe more than
ever.
When the euro coins and
notes were launched in 2002, Wim Duisenberg, then the ECB president,
declared that it was “the first currency that has not only severed
its link to gold but also its link to the nation-state”.
However, as the Greek
crisis has shown, the euro has done anything but. All it did was to
round up a ragtag bunch of nations — some fiscally sensible, some
routinely inclined to deficits and devaluations — and strap them in
the straitjacket of monetary union. Now, in its first major test,
nation statehood has reasserted itself, in the form of Greece’s
referendum.
Far more prescient than
Duisenberg was another of the euro’s progenitors, the former German
chancellor Helmut Schmidt. In late 2010 he predicted that within 20
years the euro’s membership would have been whittled down to a
“hard core” of France, Germany and the Netherlands.
Unless this crisis
forces the euro’s members to really embrace the fiscal union that
they’ve been rabbiting on about for so long, one suspects he will
be proved right.
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