Dawn

Dawn

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Thoughts from Galicia; 29.1.17


CATALUÑA BEFORE THE STORM

A Twitter joke began to do the rounds in Spain on Thursday. It said: “At 02:00 on Sunday the clocks go back . . . to 1936.” That was the year the Spanish Civil War began.

A few days ago, I wrote of what was happening in 'Wonderland'. So, I was pleased so see the word crop up in this excellent take by the Sunday Times on the October madness in Spain. I've underlined the most important sentences, which stress something many of us have been saying since the start of it all. Needless to say, the author concludes that, while no one has any idea how things will go from here, many of us are very fearful of the future:-

Catalonia crisis: Ghosts of civil war march in Spain

The fear that many in Spain harbour but few dare breathe the name of, other than in jokes and nervous laughter, is that history may repeat itself and the political crisis in Catalonia will spiral violently out of control. A handful of politicians have warned of an “Ulsterisation” of the region, of sectarian strife, not between Catholics and Protestants but between two bands almost as bitterly opposed these days: those against and those in favour of Catalan independence. However, such politicians tend quickly to be shouted down. It is too awful to contemplate the possibility of something even dimly resembling Francisco Franco’s savagely cruel war happening again. Yet the war’s shadow is there, hovering over Spanish minds.

All kinds of images suggest themselves in the attempt to describe the unnecessary, confusing and perilous mess in which Spain and Catalonia have landed themselves. A bullfight, maybe; or a Barcelona-Real Madrid match; or Alice in Wonderland, with a sprinkling of Monty Python, Salvador Dali and Donald Trump.

Let’s try the bullfight first, with Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime minister, playing the bull and Carles Puigdemont, the separatist president of the Catalan regional government since January last year, the matador. The bull is not very imaginative and has little truck with dialogue or compromise but does have clarity of purpose — in this case to obliterate the Catalan independence movement.

The matador lacks the strength to put the bull to the sword, so his best hope is to dodge and weave, tiring the beast, exhausting its will to fight. The matador is blind to his own weakness, though. He deludes himself into thinking he is a match for the bull. As suicidal as he is romantic, he wraps himself in the red and gold colours of Catalan secessionism and invites it to charge.

That’s what happened on Friday, the most politically action-packed day in Catalonia since the civil war. Puigdemont unilaterally declared Catalan independence — just the red rag Rajoy needed to invoke article 155 of the Spanish constitution, impose direct rule on Catalonia, order the overthrow of the Catalan government and call regional elections on December 21. Late at night, a spokesman of Rajoy’s centre-right Popular Party said Puigdemont’s arrest was imminent.

Politics is not primarily about persuasion for Rajoy: it is about enforcing the law. No one had doubted how he would respond to Puigdemont’s declaration of independence, but that did not stop the latter’s supporters reacting to it with euphoria. “This is a dream come true, a historic victory,” declared separatist politicians, as if Barcelona had just beaten Real Madrid in a cup final, when all they had done was score an early goal prior to an inevitable thumping.

All sides seem to be living in Wonderland. The present crisis was sparked on October 1 by a referendum that was never a referendum; it was a mass demonstration with a dash of street theatre, with the people who turned up and cast their symbolic, non-binding votes overwhelmingly being those in favour of independence. Unsurprisingly, just 43% of the electorate voted and 90% of them elected to leave Spain.

Puigdemont and the coalition of separatists, anarchists and left-wing radicals that gave him a narrow parliamentary majority judged this electoral mirage to be sufficiently compelling to warrant Friday’s declaration of independence.

Puigdemont and company believe, like Alice’s Humpty Dumpty, that words mean exactly what they choose them to mean. Rajoy and company could have put their own interpretation on the “referendum”, seen it for what it really was and ignored it. Instead, spoiling for a fight, they took the separatists at their word, got terribly exercised about their “illegal” and “unconstitutional” behaviour and sent in the guardia civil, who proceeded to club old ladies over the head in front of the world’s media. It was the worst day for Spain’s global reputation since the rioting that followed the death of Franco.

All this could have been avoided five years ago, when the independence movement burst from obscurity into light. The present crisis, and indeed, the rise to power of the Puigdemont crowd, would never have come about had Rajoy responded with the requisite political nous to a demonstration in September 2012 that saw 1m people fill the streets of Barcelona, clamouring for independence. That is a lot in a Catalan region with a total population of 7.5m.

At the very least, Rajoy could have begun formal discussions on granting Catalonia greater autonomy — at best he would have granted the Catalans a Scottish-style referendum, which the “no” vote would most certainly have won, putting to bed the whole problem for a generation. Instead, he looked the other way, refusing to entertain talks with the pliable and naturally deal-making centre-right Catalan government in place at the time. Rajoy retreated into a make-believe world in which — never mind the evidence on the streets — Catalan independence was the province of a small bunch of radical agitators.

The prime minister does not seem to have budged from this comforting delusion. Last week, he blithely described the imposition of direct rule from Madrid as a move designed “to restore democracy”, “restore peaceful co-existence” and, remarkably, “restore Catalan autonomy”. He regards the December elections he has called as an exercise that will clear the air and bring Catalonia cheerfully back into the Spanish fold, ignoring the strong possibility that, with Puigdemont and his people absent from the ballot papers — and possibly in jail by then — such elections will lack legitimacy in the eyes of half the Catalan population.

A lot can happen between now and then. Rajoy’s bet is that the Catalan separatists will succumb to battle fatigue. Yet only last Saturday, 450,000 people filled the streets of Barcelona in protest at the jailing of two almost unknown Catalan politicians who had helped organise the October 1 festivities.

How would they respond to the jailing of Puigdemont? How, for that matter, would the 17,000-strong Catalan police force, hitherto responsible only to the Catalan government, react to being told they must forcefully impose the new Madrid order? Will they clash with the Spanish guardia civil and Spanish policia nacional?

More dangerous yet, will the idea take hold among the highly energised independence-seeking youth that they have been the victims of a Franquista coup d’état? Will the inevitable demonstrations turn ugly, with people throwing stones at police? Will there be a death? Will the Catalan independence movement have its first martyr?

Goaded into a hardline response by Puigdemont, whose declaration of independence was as irresponsible as it was illegitimate, Rajoy has the law on his side — but he is playing with fire.


So . . . In the short term, Cataluña is to be run by Rajoy's traditional stand-in, mouthpiece and enforcer - Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría - a 46 year old lawyer whose entire working experience has been as a civil servant. And who's rather unkindly known as The Poisoned Dwarf.

God help Spain. Not that He helped much last time round. Unless you were a fanatical Catholic, of course. And look how that ended up.

This time round, He again seems to be on the side of the mad right-wing extremists of the PP party, many of whose politicians are said to be the sons and daughters of Franco ministers. And members of the Catholic secret(ive) society Opus Dei.

Those who don't study history . . . 

Finally . . . A book title of the 1950s keeps coming back to me . . .  Cry, the beloved country.

Today's Cartoon:

Also from The Sunday Times . . . 




You'll have noted that the bull - wagged by its tail - is goring itself . . . .

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