Spanish life is not always likeable but it is compellingly loveable.
Christopher Howse: A Pilgrim in Spain
Spanish politics- There's a guarantee of stormy weather in Cataluña this week.
- But today the other side is demonstrating.
Spanish Life
- The Olive Press reports that : ‘A pair of British and Dutch expats have produced a film on 80 of Spain’s many castles.' Click here for more on this.
- An extremely unusual vineyard.
- Richard North on Brexit today: There is a lot riding on this week, but rarely has our immediate political future been so opaque.
- Hard to believe . . . Cash-strapped NHS hospitals are paying locum doctors record sums of almost £4,000 each per shift in a bid to plug a growing staffing crisis across the health service. Brits, of course, love their NHS, while no one else in the world sees it as a model for a public healthcare system. Bit of a dissonance there.
- Here's a commentator of the Left, having a go at answering a frequent question from Europe.
- See the first article below on why, despite everything, Ffart could gain a second term. Unless he's assassinated by a Republican in the next 12 months
- There are some very funny bits here.
- Who said this?: "Anyone who loves his mother or father, or son or daughter is not worthy of me." Well, of course, it could be the megalomaniacal Ffart but, in fact, it was a first century AD/CE guru. I'm sure you can guess who.
- This morning, my son-in-law asked me if I wanted their spare doorbell. "Doorbell??' I asked, whereupon the screen of the TV changed from a rugby match in Japan to a series of ads for doorbells. Neither of us found this appealing. To say the least.
- See the article below on the reaction against early/premature treatment of kids who think they want/need to change their gender.
- From El País in English here: Why the Spanish language is losing ground in Gibraltar. Younger generations are using English almost exclusively, a fact educators blame partly on social media.
- I learned today that thot is the go-to insult these days for a girl of questionable repute - an acronym of “that ho over there”. As if we didn't have enough alternatives already.
- When I want to indicate I'm nonchalant, I say: I couldn't care less. But my American friends say: I could care less. Each of these means the opposite to a listener from the other country. I'm guessing Irish influence again.
1. One reason why Donald Trump could win the 2020 US election despite his impeachment woes
Tom Rees
Donald Trump appears to be a president under siege as the relentless American election cycle kicks back into gear. Calls for impeachment are growing louder, he is the least popular US president at this stage of his term for decades, and polling indicates Trump would lose to any of the leading Democratic candidates in the 2020 vote.
At a fiery rally in Minneapolis last night Trump predicted a backlash to the impeachment inquiry that threatens to topple him but he has another, better weapon that could still save his bacon: the economy.
“It’s the economy stupid” – the famous slogan used by Bill Clinton in his bid to oust the floundering incumbent George Bush Sr in 1992 – should be emblazoned on the battle map of every presidential campaign.
The theory goes that an incumbent president is notoriously difficult to dislodge in boom times but highly vulnerable when job losses pile up and growth stutters.
New research by Oxford Economics has found that economic indicators successfully predicted the popular vote in 16 out of the last 18 elections.
Its election model, based solely on economic factors, predicts a barnstorming victory for Trump, should he survive impeachment, ushering in four more years of Twitter tirades and tumult.
Unemployment has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years
Unemployment rate (pc)
Could the solid economy secure Trump fourmore years?
1970 2.5
1980 5.0
1990 10.0
2000 7.5
2010 10.0
2020 12.5
Current economic indicators suggest that Trump would seize victory by 55pc to 45pc in the popular vote. That compares to losing the popular vote 48pc to 46pc in 2016 but still managing to win the electoral college.
“A record low unemployment rate, subdued inflation and only moderately cooler income growth will favour the incumbent party despite some party fatigue,” explains Gregory Daco, an Oxford Economics economist. Its model uses joblessness figures, inflation and real disposable income growth as the key factors influencing elections.
“Research indicates that voters typically focus on that party’s economic performance and generally factor in data only from the last year before the election," he adds.
That last point could prove crucial just over a year before the 2020 election. While Trump’s greatest strength now is the economy, it could become his Achilles heel in a year’s time.
Closely watched indicators on bond markets suggest that the risk of recession within the next 12 months is at its highest since the financial crisis as the trade war bruises business confidence.
The New York Fed's recession probability gauge is calculated using the US Treasury yield curve
The probability a recession will begin in that month
Recession likelihood (pc)
The probability of a US recession has surgedto worrying levels
The New York Fed's recession probability gauge iscalculated using the US Treasury yield curve
2005 0
2010 20
2015 40
2020 60
Much could depend on how trade talks with China develop in the next few days and whether a slowdown in the US will develop into the more serious slump taking hold in Europe and China.
“The recessionary risks from another round of tit-for-tat tariff hikes should be a concern to the Trump re-election,” warns Chris Krueger, an analyst at Cowen.
While a strong economy would normally be enough to defend the presidency, it may not be sufficient for Trump.
Polling earlier this year suggested that the economy was beaten by healthcare as the top issue for Americans. And despite shepherding the strongest labour market for decades and a robust economy, Trump is incredibly unpopular at this point in his presidency.
At an approval rating of 42pc, he is the most unpopular president after 995 days since Jimmy Carter, a one-term president.
Just a decade after the worst recession since the Great Depression, have voters that typically yearn for economic security become complacent?
Daco acknowledges that non-economic issues are “likely to play an outsized role in this election”, highlighting race, gender and likeability as possible factors.
He adds that Oxford Economics’ model “doesn’t factor in the wider political context, such as the present populist undercurrents or historical scandals”.
Perhaps this time it’s anything but the economy, stupid.
2. The Times view on the Tavistock clinic and hormone-blocking drugs for the young: Informed Consent
A child gender clinic in London is being threatened with legal action. The question of whether children can agree to life-altering treatment must be carefully weighed
The moment a pregnancy is announced, expectant mothers are asked whether they are awaiting a boy or a girl. As children get older, most have a straightforward relationship with their gender. Yet for a growing minority, the question becomes vexed and can cause immense distress.
In recent years the number of children reporting gender dysphoria — the conviction that the sex on their birth certificate is the wrong one — has rocketed. Five years ago, 468 children were referred to the Tavistock and Portman NHS trust’s gender identity development service in north London, while last year alone, 2,519 children were referred.
Today we report that the clinic is being threatened with legal action by a parent who wants to stop it from prescribing hormone blockers to her 15-year-old daughter. These are powerful drugs that work on the brain to stop the eventual release of oestrogen or testosterone.
In 2014 the Tavistock changed its policy to allow puberty-blocking drugs to be prescribed to children as young as 11. Only those deemed by clinicians to have sufficient maturity and intelligence to understand the risks and consequences of treatment can undergo it without parental permission. It is always open, however, for parents to apply to the courts for orders preventing medical treatment.
This child’s mother argues that her daughter has autism and is not in a position to give informed consent. The mother is being supported in her case by a former psychotherapist who worked at the clinic for four years and became concerned by how quickly children were being cleared to begin medical treatment.
Neither the children nor their parents, they argue, are being given enough information about the risks of hormone-blocking treatment, including the possible loss of fertility and the likely loss of the ability to orgasm.
The debate around gender identity has seldom seemed more ferocious. Yet for all its heat, the question of whether children should be able to choose to take medical action to change gender is not simple.
There are two groups whose needs must be taken into account. First, children with gender dysphoria who will change their minds and settle into their natal gender in the fullness of time.
Second, children who will forever feel enclosed in the wrong gender unless they receive medical treatment. For both groups, the clock is ticking as puberty will further fix their bodies into their birth gender. Studies show that the vast majority of youngsters who begin puberty blockers go on to have irreversible hormone treatment at 16.
The concern is that the Tavistock clinic is prioritising the needs of the second group by providing too swift and smooth a pathway to medical treatment. This is not the first time concerns have surfaced.
Last year, a group of parents of transgender children wrote to the board of the Tavistock trust, alleging that it was “fast-tracking” children into life-altering decisions. The Times reported in April that five clinicians had resigned from the service with concerns that vulnerable children struggling with their sexuality were being wrongly diagnosed as transgender without adequate assessments.
Many of the children seeking treatment will have been waiting for months to set foot in the clinic. Many will have done so in anguish. A 2017 study found that 8 out of 10 trans young people have self-harmed and almost half have attempted to take their own lives. The pressure on the clinic to provide quick solutions for these children is immense. Yet haste must not prevail over long-term wellbeing.
To change gender is momentous. Children should not be rushed into setting out on that path. And they should be fully aware of the risks, both psychological and physical. As things stand, with evidence on the long-term effects of hormone blockers still thin on the ground, it is not clear that any child, whether autistic or not, is in the position to make that decision.
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