Spanish life is not always likeable but it is compellingly loveable.
- Christopher Howse: A Pilgrim in Spain.
If you've arrived here because of an interest in Galicia or Pontevedra, see my web page here. Garish but informative.
Spain
- Here's The Local with its version of hindsight of Vox's unexpected gains down in Andalucia.
- Here's how to benefit from the camino. Both as a walker and as a businessperson.
- And here's how to avoid Brexit losing you most of your tourism business. Possibly.
- Talking of Andalucia . . . HT to Lenox of Business Over Tapas for this article on the glorious things to do in Sevilla.https://www.driftwoodjournals.com/glorious-things-to-do-in-seville-spain-an-impassioned-guide/
- I might have reported before on the the latest discovery of Atlantis, this time down in Southern Spain. Near Cádiz, to be (almost) exact.
- Here's Don Quijones on the pressure 'mega-landord' Blackstone is putting the Spanish government under.
France
Brexit
- If you can bear it, there's an appraisal of all(?) the possible ways things could go as and when Mr's May 'only deal' is presented/rejected in parliament on Tuesday.
Finally . . .
- I drive a Honda Civic. These are common in Britain, quite rare on the streets of Spain and hardly ever seen in France and Germany. I wonder why this is, apart from the fact they're made in Swindon in the UK. Protectionism? Quotas?
© [David] Colin Davies
THE ARTICLE
Norway plus, second referendum or EU rescue: what are all the options if Theresa May's Brexit plan fails? Camilla Tominey
It is the Brexit question on everyone’s lips - with Theresa May’s withdrawal plan doomed to failure at Tuesday’s meaningful vote, what happens next in the chaos that is Britain’s departure from the EU?
With no consensus in parliament for any alternative option, we war game the possible scenarios in a bid to understand all the options available to the Government in the seemingly inevitable event of a huge rebellion in three day’s time.
EU rescue
Seven ministerial resignations down since the deal was agreed and with outright mutiny brewing on the backbenches, Mrs May could have no choice but to call a last minute meeting with Michel Barnier in a final roll of the dice to remove the universally hated Irish backstop from the deal. Insiders say the EU’s chief negotiator would agree to meet Mrs May but having declared the 585-page document “the only and best possible way to organise an orderly withdrawal,” it seems unlikely he'll budge. Yet despite insisting the EU would “do everything we can to avoid using it,” Brexiteers remain unconvinced. They would want Mrs May to play serious handball with Barnier, telling him that a no deal Brexit would mean a hard border in Northern Ireland, making the backstop entirely self-defeating.
Likelihood: 1 out of 5.
The deal passes
When Jacob Rees-Mogg declared last week that the Government may still win the meaningful vote by a narrow margin, many suspected he had been at the Communion wine. But as one Tory source put it: “Never underestimate the craven self-interest of the average politician and the might of the Government machine.” If the deal does go through with the Irish backstop in tact, the DUP is expected to withdraw its confidence and supply arrangement, leaving Mrs May running a minority government which will inevitably be challenged by a Labour no confidence vote. More letters would inevitably be handed to 1922 committee chairman Sir Graham Brady by Tory MPs on both sides of the Brexit divide who appear united in their dissatisfaction at a deal that is likely to spell oblivion for them at the next election, with the latest Ipsos Mori poll revealing 62 per cent of the British public thinks it’s a bad deal.
Likelihood: 2 out of 5.
Second vote
Mrs May’s deal is voted down and, channelling her inner David Cameron following the rebellion over Syria, she issues an immediate despatch box mea culpa and flies straight to Brussels to renegotiate. She could buy time by saying she wants to wait to address leaders at the EU Council summit on December 13 and 14 before returning with a revised plan. Against all odds she secures some concessions and with the pound tanking and markets in freefall, beleaguered backbenchers vote the amended deal through “in the national interest”. Seems unlikely unless the backstop is removed entirely. MPs don’t want changes to the non-binding political declaration but the treaty itself. Any second vote most likely to happen before MPs break up for Christmas on December 20.
Likelihood: 2 out of 5.
No confidence vote
Labour could table a no confidence motion whether the deal passes or fails. If it passes but she loses the DUP’s support, the Opposition can challenge her authority as the leader of a minority government - just the same as if it was voted down in triple figures - which would also call into question her leadership. Equally, with some Tory Mps waiting for an “acute event” to oust Mrs May, the 48 letter threshold could be reached on the Tories’ side if the vote fails, prompting a leadership challenge. Whatever happens, Mrs May’s fate lies with those 10 DUP MPs who will have to decide what is more important - putting up with the Irish backstop or risking a Corbyn government.
Likelihood: 4 out of 5.
Early election
If the government is voted down following a no confidence motion, a two week window opens for the Tories to try and form another government under a new leader. If this cannot be done, and no new confidence motion is passed to back the new government within that period, Parliament is dissolved and a General Election is held.
Mrs May could try to take a stand, calling an election and saying her deal is the foundation of the Tory manifesto in a bid to win a popular mandate for it. But under the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011, a prime minister no longer has the power to call an election at will - they have to win a Commons vote by a two-thirds majority. Few Tory MPs would risk Jeremy Corbyn being handed the keys to Number 10.
Likelihood: 2 out of 5.
Norway
The withdrawal agreement is voted down, but returns for a second vote with an amendment added by Nick Boles and his pro-Norway+ pals instructing the government to join the European Economic Area (EEA), which allows non-EU members access to the single market. Although this avoids the perils of the backstop, thereby pulling reaminers and the possibly the DUP onside - Brexiteers regard it as a half-in-half-out purgatory that gives Britain no control over freedom of movement: most voters’ red line. Labour’s frontbench would also be likely to reject such a deal. Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman has said: “We’ve said in relation to the Norway option that we just don’t think it works for Britain and we’ve said that all along.”
Likelihood: 3 out of 5.
Second referendum
The withdrawal agreement is voted down, but returns for a second vote with an amendment added by Dominic Grieve and his remainiac cross-party cohort saying they'll only support the deal if public is asked again. No one can agree on the questions and the markets are once again sent into free fall while leave voters march in their thousands on Parliament and possibly riot in the leafy streets of the Home Counties. Article 50 has to be suspended to allow for the five month delay in setting a second referendum up. Looks unlikely unless Labour finally swing behind this position as a second-best option after failing to force a General Election. Needs a Commons vote and there’s no majority.
Likelihood: 2 out of 5.
No deal
The certainty is that in the absence of any other action by parliament or the government, the UK will leave the European Union on March 29 2019. This is the default legal position - although ironically given the total lack of consensus, there does appear to be a majority in the Commons against allowing this to happen. By what precise means it can be stopped is not yet clear. Grieve’s amendment gives MPs the chance to try to influence what happens 21 days after the deal being voted down but it is non-binding on the Government. Most likely to happen under a new leader who would have the political capital to stand firm in the face of “cliff edge” hysteria and the M20 turning into a lorry park.
Likelihood: 4 out of 5.
No Brexit
Mrs May suffers such a historically humiliating defeat that she loses a confidence vote. Parliament is thrown into total chaos, and a cross-party group of remain MPs emerges from the carnage to form a government of ‘national unity’. A vote passes agreeing to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit until an alternative plan is decided. National humiliation ensues following a crowing press conference featuring Barnier, Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk spraying champagne over each other, Formula One style.
Likelihood: 1 out of 5.
It is the Brexit question on everyone’s lips - with Theresa May’s withdrawal plan doomed to failure at Tuesday’s meaningful vote, what happens next in the chaos that is Britain’s departure from the EU?
With no consensus in parliament for any alternative option, we war game the possible scenarios in a bid to understand all the options available to the Government in the seemingly inevitable event of a huge rebellion in three day’s time.
EU rescue
Seven ministerial resignations down since the deal was agreed and with outright mutiny brewing on the backbenches, Mrs May could have no choice but to call a last minute meeting with Michel Barnier in a final roll of the dice to remove the universally hated Irish backstop from the deal. Insiders say the EU’s chief negotiator would agree to meet Mrs May but having declared the 585-page document “the only and best possible way to organise an orderly withdrawal,” it seems unlikely he'll budge. Yet despite insisting the EU would “do everything we can to avoid using it,” Brexiteers remain unconvinced. They would want Mrs May to play serious handball with Barnier, telling him that a no deal Brexit would mean a hard border in Northern Ireland, making the backstop entirely self-defeating.
Likelihood: 1 out of 5.
The deal passes
When Jacob Rees-Mogg declared last week that the Government may still win the meaningful vote by a narrow margin, many suspected he had been at the Communion wine. But as one Tory source put it: “Never underestimate the craven self-interest of the average politician and the might of the Government machine.” If the deal does go through with the Irish backstop in tact, the DUP is expected to withdraw its confidence and supply arrangement, leaving Mrs May running a minority government which will inevitably be challenged by a Labour no confidence vote. More letters would inevitably be handed to 1922 committee chairman Sir Graham Brady by Tory MPs on both sides of the Brexit divide who appear united in their dissatisfaction at a deal that is likely to spell oblivion for them at the next election, with the latest Ipsos Mori poll revealing 62 per cent of the British public thinks it’s a bad deal.
Likelihood: 2 out of 5.
Second vote
Mrs May’s deal is voted down and, channelling her inner David Cameron following the rebellion over Syria, she issues an immediate despatch box mea culpa and flies straight to Brussels to renegotiate. She could buy time by saying she wants to wait to address leaders at the EU Council summit on December 13 and 14 before returning with a revised plan. Against all odds she secures some concessions and with the pound tanking and markets in freefall, beleaguered backbenchers vote the amended deal through “in the national interest”. Seems unlikely unless the backstop is removed entirely. MPs don’t want changes to the non-binding political declaration but the treaty itself. Any second vote most likely to happen before MPs break up for Christmas on December 20.
Likelihood: 2 out of 5.
No confidence vote
Labour could table a no confidence motion whether the deal passes or fails. If it passes but she loses the DUP’s support, the Opposition can challenge her authority as the leader of a minority government - just the same as if it was voted down in triple figures - which would also call into question her leadership. Equally, with some Tory Mps waiting for an “acute event” to oust Mrs May, the 48 letter threshold could be reached on the Tories’ side if the vote fails, prompting a leadership challenge. Whatever happens, Mrs May’s fate lies with those 10 DUP MPs who will have to decide what is more important - putting up with the Irish backstop or risking a Corbyn government.
Likelihood: 4 out of 5.
Early election
If the government is voted down following a no confidence motion, a two week window opens for the Tories to try and form another government under a new leader. If this cannot be done, and no new confidence motion is passed to back the new government within that period, Parliament is dissolved and a General Election is held.
Mrs May could try to take a stand, calling an election and saying her deal is the foundation of the Tory manifesto in a bid to win a popular mandate for it. But under the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011, a prime minister no longer has the power to call an election at will - they have to win a Commons vote by a two-thirds majority. Few Tory MPs would risk Jeremy Corbyn being handed the keys to Number 10.
Likelihood: 2 out of 5.
Norway
The withdrawal agreement is voted down, but returns for a second vote with an amendment added by Nick Boles and his pro-Norway+ pals instructing the government to join the European Economic Area (EEA), which allows non-EU members access to the single market. Although this avoids the perils of the backstop, thereby pulling reaminers and the possibly the DUP onside - Brexiteers regard it as a half-in-half-out purgatory that gives Britain no control over freedom of movement: most voters’ red line. Labour’s frontbench would also be likely to reject such a deal. Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman has said: “We’ve said in relation to the Norway option that we just don’t think it works for Britain and we’ve said that all along.”
Likelihood: 3 out of 5.
Second referendum
The withdrawal agreement is voted down, but returns for a second vote with an amendment added by Dominic Grieve and his remainiac cross-party cohort saying they'll only support the deal if public is asked again. No one can agree on the questions and the markets are once again sent into free fall while leave voters march in their thousands on Parliament and possibly riot in the leafy streets of the Home Counties. Article 50 has to be suspended to allow for the five month delay in setting a second referendum up. Looks unlikely unless Labour finally swing behind this position as a second-best option after failing to force a General Election. Needs a Commons vote and there’s no majority.
Likelihood: 2 out of 5.
No deal
The certainty is that in the absence of any other action by parliament or the government, the UK will leave the European Union on March 29 2019. This is the default legal position - although ironically given the total lack of consensus, there does appear to be a majority in the Commons against allowing this to happen. By what precise means it can be stopped is not yet clear. Grieve’s amendment gives MPs the chance to try to influence what happens 21 days after the deal being voted down but it is non-binding on the Government. Most likely to happen under a new leader who would have the political capital to stand firm in the face of “cliff edge” hysteria and the M20 turning into a lorry park.
Likelihood: 4 out of 5.
No Brexit
Mrs May suffers such a historically humiliating defeat that she loses a confidence vote. Parliament is thrown into total chaos, and a cross-party group of remain MPs emerges from the carnage to form a government of ‘national unity’. A vote passes agreeing to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit until an alternative plan is decided. National humiliation ensues following a crowing press conference featuring Barnier, Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk spraying champagne over each other, Formula One style.
Likelihood: 1 out of 5.
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